Anthropic’s IPO: VCs Stand to Gain Billions, But Amazon’s Profits Could Skyrocket Even Higher
Anthropic’s upcoming public offering is set to provide significant financial rewards for multiple investors. Firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital are projected to reap billions from their stakes.
However, according to Anthropic’s S-1 filing, none of these venture capital firms holds a 5% stake — the minimum required to appear in the main stockholders’ table. This situation is quite rare, as in typical tech IPOs, leading investors usually own substantial portions of the startups they support. The reason for this anomaly lies in Anthropic’s valuation of $965 billion; for instance, Menlo’s stake, valued at around $14 billion, represents only about 1.5% of the firm.
While venture capital firms may not have large percentage holdings, Anthropic has sold substantial shares to strategic partners who also have business ties to the company. Among these, Amazon is poised to be the biggest financial beneficiary of the IPO.
Amazon initially invested in Anthropic in 2023, committing up to $4 billion to support the AI company. Since then, Amazon has invested billions more. Much of this funding has been structured as convertible notes, a form of debt that can convert into equity at the time of an IPO or acquisition.
As of June 30, Anthropic’s S-1 indicates that Amazon holds $6.2 billion of these convertible notes, representing Anthropic’s full debt. As the startup’s valuation increased during successive funding rounds, the value of Amazon’s potential shares has also risen significantly, with Amazon recently estimating the worth of its notes at $97.9 billion as of the end of June.
With the rapid appreciation in the value of its convertible notes, Anthropic has had to account for the growing liabilities on its balance sheet. These adjustments, recorded under “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” amounted to $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. This impact on earnings is non-cash, indicating that no physical cash left the company.
Amazon’s notes might convert into approximately 1.84 billion shares, as per the S-1. However, an existing cap limits Amazon’s ownership to 12% of Anthropic’s “partially diluted” share count, which includes certain unissued shares, like stock options. While Amazon may choose to waiving this cap, any notes that cannot convert will remain as liabilities and will convert in later quarters, subjected to the same limit.
In addition to these notes, Amazon also invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock during the second quarter, as indicated by its quarterly report ending June 30. This investment was structured as $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds, bringing Amazon’s total investment to approximately $18 billion when combined with the $8 billion invested in notes from 2023 to 2025.
Aside from its equity gains, Amazon is set to earn substantial revenue from its relationship with Anthropic, which has pledged to spend at least $110 billion on AWS over the next decade.
Google is also positioned to benefit significantly from Anthropic’s IPO and its ongoing cloud computing agreements with the company. As reported in court documents, Google owned around 14% of Anthropic early last year, and has since contributed an additional $10 billion to its investment. Estimations place Google’s current stake at approximately 5.6% following subsequent funding rounds. Moreover, it has secured at least $114 billion in cloud contracts with Anthropic through 2033.
While venture capitalists are in line for substantial financial returns, the S-1 suggests that larger technology corporations like Amazon may emerge as the significant winners from Anthropic’s IPO, having invested early on and now supplying it with essential computing resources.
The S-1 document itself raises caution regarding potential conflicts of interest, noting that some cloud providers also develop competing AI models and may not always align their goals with Anthropic’s.
